ESPN
Dec 9, 2024, 08:30 AM ET
We hope you wrote down all of your preseason predictions in pencil, not pen. Because some of those thoughts that seemed reasonable a month ago -- not so much now.
Take UConn, the two-time champion that has already fallen on hard times after an 0-3 stretch at the Maui Invitational during Thanksgiving week. The Huskies nearly fell out of the national rankings, but more importantly, they've been the subject of widespread doubt about their chances to win a third consecutive national championship.
With UConn's early decline, the path seems open for a new champion, but whom? No team has emerged as the clear front-runner at this point.
In the national player of the year race, Duke's Cooper Flagg, the projected No. 1 pick, has been impressive, but it still seems like we're waiting on that performance that separates him from the pack, which is stacked with contenders. He'll have to chase Auburn's Johni Broome and Marquette's Kam Jones to end the season with the Wooden Award.
Jeff Borzello, Joe Lunardi and Myron Medcalf discuss the current college basketball landscape a month into the season.
What has been the biggest surprise (good or bad) of the season so far?
Medcalf: I didn't expect this start from the Tennessee Volunteers, who will probably start the week as the No. 1 team in the Associated Press poll. Last season's Elite Eight squad had Dalton Knecht, the current front-runner for the NBA's rookie of the year award, Jonas Aidoo (transferred to Arkansas) and other key vets. But with Zakai Zeigler and North Florida transfer Chaz Lanier, these Vols have a higher offensive efficiency rate than last season's team. And they're still defensively astute, per the norm under coach Rick Barnes.
Borzello: Entering the season, there was a case to be made that the three most proven players in the country were North Carolina's RJ Davis, Alabama's Mark Sears and Kansas' Hunter Dickinson. Through one month, though, all three have been far more inconsistent than we've come to expect from them. Davis is shooting 35% from the field and a career-low 24.2% from 3. Sears is shooting a career-low 37% and was scoreless against Illinois. Dickinson is averaging his fewest points since his freshman season. All three teams need their stars to return to their past form, too.
Lunardi: We all knew the SEC would be good. We didn't know it would be this deep and this good. It's now very possible -- maybe even probable -- that the conference will set a record for most NCAA bids in one season. The 16-team Big East of 2010-11 put 11 teams into that season's bracket. The 16-team SEC of 2024-25 currently projects 12, with at least one more on the bubble.
Which national championship contender do you no longer believe in?
Medcalf: For me, it's the UConn Huskies. I think it's easy to forget that Dan Hurley's back-to-back champion teams produced six NBA draft picks, including three first-round selections. Those Huskies weren't an underdog story. They were extremely talented and skilled, which helps when the goal is to win a national championship. This season, however, the Huskies lack that same imposing depth. One coach who faced UConn this season told ESPN that it's no longer a team opponents fear. And I'm not convinced that will change before March.
Borzello: Houston. The easy answer would be UConn, but I'm not ready to give up on the reigning back-to-back champion and a team with Dan Hurley as its coach and Alex Karaban and Liam McNeeley as its go-to guys. The Houston Cougars, however, are a team about which I have serious concerns. The Cougars' defense is good enough to keep them in games, but I just don't know if they have the shot creators needed to win a title. It was an issue at times last season, when they were arguably the best team in the country, but that team had Jamal Shead. This team, of course, does not.
Lunardi: The North Carolina Tar Heels might be hard-pressed to make the final four of the ACC, much less the Final Four that really matters. The Tar Heels have been handled by every major conference foe and needed some late-game good fortune to escape Dayton for their only win in Maui. This is the same program that missed the tournament altogether two years ago as a preseason No. 1 team, and that shouldn't happen when you have RJ Davis.
Which national championship contender are you now all-in on?
Medcalf: The Duke Blue Devils. There has been a lot of buzz about Duke's late-game stumbles against Kansas and Kentucky. But there is also another way to look at it: A team led by the projected No. 1 pick in the NBA draft just finished 2-2 against Auburn, Arizona, Kentucky and Kansas, and it's a handful of plays from being 4-0. Tyrese Proctor has connected on 46% of his 3-point attempts. And with Khaman Maluach in the paint, the Blue Devils are also first in adjusted defensive efficiency on KenPom. They'll be dangerous in the postseason.
Borzello: It's hard not to be a big believer in Auburn right now. The Tigers have the Wooden Award favorite in Johni Broome, an emerging freshman guard in Tahaad Pettiford and a slew of versatile veterans up and down the roster that allows them to play against different styles. I didn't quite consider them national title contenders before the season, but they've played like arguably the best team in the country through one month.
Lunardi: Is it time yet to talk about Marquette? The Golden Eagles were thought to need a little time after losing Big East Player of the Year Tyler Kolek but have instead solidified behind national POTY candidate Kam Jones. Marquette has lost just once, at Iowa State, and boasts what is approaching a No. 1 seed-type résumé.
What storyline has yet to be addressed that you're waiting to see?
Medcalf: After a lot of noise throughout the preseason about the potential effect, I'd like to know how the travel demands attached to realignment will impact teams in conference play. Oregon could make noise in the Big Ten after a strong start but trips to Ohio State, Penn State and Minnesota -- over a three-week span -- could be physically challenging. UCLA will play at Maryland and Rutgers in mid-January. And Arizona will travel to Cincinnati and West Virginia shortly after New Year's, too. Those opponents will also have to make lengthy trips to play the West Coast schools, too. It's a newer dynamic in this landscape that could impact outcomes.
Borzello: Can a team win a national championship starting three freshmen? That's going to be the big question facing Duke the rest of the season. I'm higher on the Blue Devils as a potential title-winner than I was entering the season, mostly because they're clearly going to be an elite defensive unit with Cooper Flagg's versatility, Maliq Brown's post defense and Khaman Maluach's rim protection. Tyrese Proctor, Caleb Foster and Kon Knueppel will have to become more consistent as the season progresses, but there's certainly enough here to reach San Antonio.
Lunardi: How deep will the selection committee go in considering losing teams within the expanded super leagues? The notion of rejecting sub.-500 power conference records is long since out the window. But suppose, say, the Rutgers Scarlet Knights are 7-13 in the Big Ten with four or five Quad 1 wins? Or Arkansas goes 6-12 in the SEC with a small handful of big wins? Debates that formerly fell into the NIT window are going to be very much in play this March.
Is the national player of the year race a little clearer at this point of the season?
Medcalf: I think Johni Broome was clearly the guy to beat ahead of Auburn's road test against Louisville on Sunday. And that's still the reality. Cooper Flagg has an impressive stat line (16.6 PPG, 8.6 RPG, 4.1 APG, 1.4 BPG), and his team has a win over Broome's squad; Tennessee's Chaz Lanier and Zakai Zeigler could be sleepers in this conversation, too. But Broome's real competition right now is Kam Jones, who finished with 32 points in Shaka Smart's first win over Wisconsin as Marquette's head coach. It was the fourth time this season that Jones scored at least 24 points in a game.
Borzello: As mentioned earlier, three of the prime POY candidates entering the season -- Davis, Sears, Dickinson -- haven't been quite as good as previous years. Flagg has been terrific and should only get better as the season goes on, but the favorite right now is clearly Broome. Entering Sunday, the Auburn big man was averaging 20.6 points and leading the nation in rebounding at 12.8 per game -- while also dishing out three assists and blocking three shots per night. He has been outstanding in big games (20 and 9 vs. Houston, 21 and 10 vs. Iowa State, 23 and 19 vs. North Carolina, 20 and 12 vs. Duke), and his dominance shows no sign of slowing down.
Lunardi: Allow me to throw in another candidate: Eric Dixon is putting up video game numbers at Villanova. He's second in the country in scoring (25.7 PPG) with shooting splits of .530/.541./851. If the sixth-year redshirt somehow leads the Wildcats to the NCAA tournament and saves Kyle Neptune's job, he'll have to get some consideration.
If you could have ONE preseason prediction do-over, what would it be?
Medcalf: I would have had more confidence in Memphis. When Penny Hardaway fired most of his staff prior to the start of the 2024-25 campaign, it seemed as if the program was influx. But the additions of Mike Davis and Nolan Smith has clearly elevated a team that started 7-1 with wins over UConn and Michigan State. Plus, P.J. Haggerty (22.3 PPG, 42 percent from beyond the arc entering Sunday) -- who is at his third school -- is playing like an All-American. I'm not sure how far Memphis will go in the postseason, but the Tigers look like an NCAA tournament team with a strong backcourt that's already helped this program exceed early expectations.
Borzello: I'd have focused more on North Carolina's complete lack of a frontcourt. I had the Tar Heels just outside the top 10, but in that second or third tier of teams that could make a Final Four run. Most of that was predicated on an absolutely loaded perimeter group with Davis, Elliot Cadeau, Seth Trimble, Ian Jackson and Drake Powell. And the guards have been as good as advertised, despite the consistency issues. But the frontcourt has been nonexistent and the defense woeful. Belmont transfer Cade Tyson is not Harrison Ingram, Vanderbilt transfer Ven-Allen Lubin is not Armando Bacot. And before this past weekend, the Tar Heels had allowed 91 points per game in five games against top-50 opponents.
Lunardi: More belief in the Kentucky Wildcats. Even if it's recency bias after this weekend's late-night triumph over Gonzaga, Mark Pope has the Wildcats further along than even the most ardent members of Big Blue Nation expected. Wins over Duke and the Zags are gifts that will keep on giving no matter how many SEC pot holes the Wildcats encounter. This is a second weekend NCAA tournament team at worst, which will be a nice change of pace in Lexington.
Make a bold prediction for the rest of the season:
Medcalf: We will see another surprise retirement from an elite coach this year. Over the last three years, Mike Krzyzewski, Roy Williams, Jim Boeheim and Jay Wright all left the game, in part because of the changing tide created by NIL and transfer portal demands. While many veteran coaches have adjusted and vowed to remain for years to come -- see: Tom Izzo and Kelvin Sampson -- the idea of rebuilding a team every season is a burden for coaches at every level. And even though some of the most accomplished coaches have committed themselves to adapting to the changes in the sport, there is no guarantee they'll still feel that way in four months.
Borzello: Only one 1-seed reaches the Final Four. Given we've had just more than one 1-seed advance to the Final Four in just one of the last three NCAA tournaments, perhaps this isn't that bold -- but I think we have a Final Four much more akin to 2023 (zero 1-seeds, no seed better than a 4) than a chalky one. Parity is as prevalent as ever, top teams are struggling away from home every night, and I think there are teams outside the current top 25 good enough to make a run to the Final Four. It adds up to a wild NCAA tournament.
Lunardi: Even with two fewer teams, the SEC will get more NCAA tournament bids than either the Big Ten or ACC. And, if non-conference records translate at all, those bids will not be wasted. I expect the SEC will comprise half of this year's Final Four and pose a genuine threat for the league's first national championship since Kentucky in 2012.
