Betting WNBA Futures: Where Clark, Bueckers fit in MVP, ROY race

Entering the season, Caitlin Clark was the odds-on favorite to win the WNBA MVP award. Her injury this week changed the dynamic of several WNBA futures races, starting with the MVP -- where we have a new odds-on favorite.

Let's take a look at the current state of the MVP and Rookie of the Year races, at the favorites, the contenders and the longshots to identify where the best betting value lies.

Most Valuable Player

Leader: Napheesa Collier (-275)
In the hunt: Caitlin Clark (+400), A'ja Wilson (+1000)
Longshots of interest: Breanna Stewart (+6000), Kelsey Plum (+6000), Alyssa Thomas (10,000)

Collier has taken over as the heavy favorite to win the MVP award, at -275. The Lynx, last season's WNBA Finals runner-up, are tied with the defending champion Liberty for the best record in the WNBA as the last two undefeated teams. Collier, the defending Defensive Player of the Year, is leading the WNBA in scoring at 26.8 PPG and is also top-10 in rebounding (10th, 7.8 RPG), blocks (fifth, 1.4 BPG) and steals (fourth, 2.4 SPG).

Clark still has the second-shortest odds, even with her injury. The initial estimate is that she's out at least two weeks, which would be roughly four to six games out, or roughly 10% - 15% of the season. Clark would still have the chance to get back in the race with that much time off, particularly if the team is able to stay in contention while she's out. Team record is a big factor in MVP vote, in addition to individual stats. Clark leads the WNBA with 9.3 APG, is top-10 in both steals and blocks and is top-25 in rebounds.

Wilson, the three-time and reigning WNBA MVP, is the best value on the board at +1000. She was the runaway winner last season, and even with a relatively slow start to the season she still leads the league with 2.3 BPG, is top-5 in both scoring (fourth) and rebounds (second), is top-10 in steals and 15th in assists. The Aces are 2-2 as they adjust to their new lineup, but they project to settle out as one of the best teams in the league. Wilson will very likely push for the league lead in multiple categories again this season, as she did last year. Being able to get 10-to-1 odds on Wilson for MVP seems almost too good to be true.

Stewart, Plum and Thomas all have arguments to be in the MVP race. But one player that likely should be mentioned, and isn't even listed on the odds board, is Jonquel Jones. The 2021 MVP is off to an outstanding start for the Liberty and is the team's second-leading scorer with 16.8 PPG. She ranks top-10 in the league in both rebounds (seventh) and blocks (third). If the Liberty remain on top of the league with Jones leading the way, she will likely enter the MVP conversation before the season ends.

Rookie of the Year

Leader: Paige Bueckers (-700)
In the hunt: Sonia Citron (+800)
Longshots of interest: Janelle Salaun (+1500), Kiki Iriafen (+1800)

Bueckers is the overwhelming favorite to win Rookie of the Year and has long been considered a generational prospect. In addition to the expectations, she had coming into the season as the No.1 overall pick, the vast majority of bettors have put money on her to win. She is off to a solid start to the season, leading all rookies with 6.7 APG and second in scoring, steals and blocks.

Citron, the third overall pick, is off to a strong start to her rookie year. She leads all first-year players with 15.0 PPG while shooting 50.8% from the field and 40.0% from behind the arc. Her strong play, along with fellow rookie Kiki Iriafen, has helped the rebuilding Mystics get off to a .500 start. Iriafen is leading all rookies with 10.7 RPG (the third-best mark in the WNBA) and is the only rookie averaging a double-double with 14.2 PPG as well.

Salaun is a surprise longshot who wasn't even listed on the odds board at the beginning of the season. She was undrafted in 2025 and signed with the Golden State Valkyrie. She currently leads all rookies in 3PG (2.8) and ranks second in RPG (7.8) RPG and PPG (13.8).

While I agree Bueckers should be the favorite to win, it is an unfortunate reality that an injury could change the race in a hurry. Citron, Iriafen and Salaun are each currently putting together rookie seasons that can legitimately challenge Bueckers. There's no reason to bet on Bueckers to win at -700 ($70 to win $10), so I'd say Iriafen offers the best value on the board right now, with 18-1 odds.