ESPN
Jan 4, 2026, 06:43 AM ET
The final NFL playoff spot is at stake when the Pittsburgh Steelers host the Baltimore Ravens on "Sunday Night Football."
The Ravens would clinch the AFC North with a win, while the Steelers would wrap up the division with a win or tie in the last game of the regular season.
Pittsburgh could have wrapped things up last week but fell on the road to the Cleveland Browns. The Ravens knocked off the Green Bay Packers to keep their playoff hopes alive.
The Steelers defeated the Ravens 27-22 in Week 14 but are 3.5-point underdogs in the rematch.
Matt Bowen, Liz Loza, Pamela Maldonado and Eric Moody offer their picks, prop bets, DFS plays and analysis to help you bet the game.
Note: Odds provided by DraftKings and subject to change.
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Picks | Props | DFS tips | Trends
Game bet
Total points UNDER 41.5 (-115)
Maldonado: Baltimore wants to run and keep Lamar Jackson efficient, not aggressive. Pittsburgh struggles to score without short fields or defensive help. Both teams bleed clock, limit possessions and force long drives. Unless turnovers or defensive touchdowns show up, points will be at a premium.
Notable player props, bets
0:45
Why Lamar Jackson isn't a top-10 fantasy QB for Field Yates
Field Yates explains his fantasy skepticism for Lamar Jackson vs. the Steelers.
Lamar Jackson OVER 26.5 rushing yards (-109)
Loza: Jackson's rushing numbers have been down all season, and T.J. Watt's potential return could thwart the QB's rushing efforts. Still, Jackson has cleared this number in three of his past four outings against the Steelers.
Kenneth Gainwell OVER 29.5 receiving yards (-109)
Bowen: With a limited perimeter passing game due to DK Metcalf's suspension, let's take Gainwell as the underneath outlet for quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Gainwell caught six passes in the Week 14 game versus Baltimore.
Zay Flowers OVER 60.5 receiving yards (-114)
Moody: The Ravens must defeat the Steelers to make the playoffs, and Flowers is well positioned to help Baltimore get the win. He has cleared this line in seven of his past 10 games and should find success against a Steelers defense that has allowed the fourth-most receptions and sixth-most receiving yards per game to wide receivers. In four career games against Pittsburgh, Flowers has totaled 20 receptions for 336 yards and a touchdown.
Daily fantasy tips for DraftKings Captain Showdown
Bowen's recommendations
Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): Derrick Henry ($17,100) rushed for a season-high 216 yards -- with four touchdowns -- in the Week 17 win over the Packers, and he had 25 carries in the first meeting of the season with Pittsburgh in Week 14.
Also in my lineup: Jaylen Warren ($9,000) is a touchdown-dependent player in the lineup, but he can give you 12-14 carries in a backfield split with Gainwell.
Loza's recommendations
Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): Lamar Jackson ($17,400). Jackson's play (and availability) have been far from consistent throughout 2025. Still, I'm optimistic that with the division title and a playoff spot on the line, Jackson will cook against a Steelers defense that has surrendered the third-most passing yards (3,924) and five rushing scores to opposing signal-callers (tied for sixth most).
Also in my lineup: Kenneth Gainwell ($13,200) has thrived as a short-yardage target, ranking fifth at the position in receptions (4.1) and receiving yards per game (26.4). He figures to stay busy versus a Ravens defense that has allowed the second-most grabs and third-most receiving yards to RBs.
Maldonado's recommendations
Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): Lamar Jackson ($17,400). Even in a low-total matchup, Jackson's rushing floor matters more than his passing volume. Designed runs, scrambles and red zone involvement give him multiple paths to optimal totals.
Also in my lineup: Derrick Henry ($11,400) for volume. Baltimore bleeds clock and stays ahead of the sticks, then closes drives on the ground. Henry's second-half usage and touchdown equity are strong.
Moody's recommendation
Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): Derrick Henry ($17,100) has amassed 442 rushing yards and six touchdowns over his past three games. When the weather gets cold, the veteran running back is just getting warmed up. Henry finished with 94 rushing yards against the Steelers in Week 14 and should be a major part of the Ravens' offensive game plan against Pittsburgh.
Betting trends
Courtesy of ESPN Research
The Steelers are 7-2 outright and ATS against the Ravens since 2021, including an outright win as 5.5-point underdogs in Week 14. The Steelers were underdogs in seven of those eight matchups. Seven of the nine meetings went under the total.
The Ravens are 1-5 ATS in their past six as favorites.
The Steelers' past four home games have gone under the total.
