Best bets: Take the points with Arizona State at Baylor?

College football Week 4 brings a board full of numbers that look tempting at first glance, but dig a little deeper, the edges start to reveal themselves.

Some of these matchups hinge on mismatches in the trenches, others on pace and red zone execution and a few are simply about trusting what we already know.

I've run through the current stats and the storylines, and three bets made the cut.

All odds by ESPN BET

Tulsa at Oklahoma State (Friday)

Bet to make: Tulsa +13.5

I saw this and caught myself saying out loud saying, "Why?!" Because Tulsa lost 45-10 last year? Different team.

Oklahoma State was up just 17-7 at the half against UT Martin and then got bulldozed by Oregon. This is not just a slow start.

The concerns were there all summer: overhauled coaching staff, heavy reliance on transfers, no proven quarterback and an offensive line without a single returning starter. Those problems don't get fixed in two games, and so far the results line up. The run game is stuck at 3.2 yards per carry and the passing attack has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns.

Tulsa is not flashy, but they're functional with a ground game that already has 19 runs of 10 yards or more. And the sneaky part is that Tulsa has the second best pass rush grade by PFF even with only eight sacks in three games. They're winning battles up front even if it hasn't fully shown in the box score yet. That could show up against the Cowboys, where Zane Flores has been sacked twice in each game.

Oklahoma State should look better at home in a rivalry spot, but the efficiency gap is real. Tulsa has edges in the trenches and enough offense to keep this tight. This is me taking my preseason read, watching it come to life and fading Oklahoma State until they prove me wrong.

Time to ride the Hurricane. I wouldn't be shocked if they win (+380).

Iowa at Rutgers (Friday)

Bet to make: UNDER 45.5

Rutgers has put up flashy passing numbers through three weeks, but I don't buy that their air attack is truly a tier above what Iowa State showed.

The Cyclones threw it 27 times against Iowa and came away with just 134 yards on 5 yards per attempt. That is the kind of suffocating drag Iowa's defense creates.

The Hawkeyes are built on a top-10 PFF pass rush grade, generating enough pressure to collapse pockets, force quarterbacks into short throws and take away explosives. That style matches perfectly against a Rutgers offense that has thrived on efficiency and rhythm. Add in Iowa's red zone defense, where opponents have only five trips all season and three total touchdowns, and it is hard to picture Rutgers lighting up the scoreboard the way they did against Norfolk State or Miami (OH).

And okay, maybe I was wrong. Entering the season I was excited about the potential of the Hawkeyes having a new and improved offense. It is what it is, a heavy ground game, over 44 rushing attempts per contest, chewing up clock and leaning on field position. Typical.

That approach limits possessions, slows pace and makes every touchdown feel like a grind. Rutgers' run defense has not been great, but Iowa is not suddenly scoring 30 points in a Big Ten road game.

The formula is straightforward. Iowa's pass rush shrinks Rutgers' passing game, Iowa's defense holds inside the 20 and Iowa's offense drains the clock on the ground. This one feels like a rock fight in a phone booth. Punt intended.

Arizona State at Baylor (Saturday)

Bet to make: Arizona State +2.5

On the surface, you think: Baylor laying less than a field goal at home with that passing game? It sounds tempting.

But this actually sets up perfectly for what the Sun Devils do best, run the ball straight at you.

Arizona State has one of the top rushing offenses in the country, ranked top five by PFF, and it's not just volume. This group is explosive with 28 runs of 10 or more yards already. Raleek Brown has averaged more than eight yards a carry and Sam Leavitt adds another dimension as a mobile quarterback. When ASU's ground game gets downhill, defenses have not been able to get them off schedule.

Baylor's run defense is disastrous, one of the worst front sevens in the nation, ranking 124th in rushing yards allowed and 81st in tackling. Auburn rolled up more than 300 rushing yards against them and even an FCS opponent found lanes. If Baylor's defense can't stop first contact or wrap up, Arizona State can steal control and keep Baylor's passing threat watching from the sideline.

Plus, ASU's defense stiffens in the red zone, allowing only four touchdowns on nine trips. That means Baylor's drives could end in field goals, not seven points. Add in that ASU has registered 11 sacks so far this season, while Baylor quarterback Sawyer Robertson was dropped four times by Auburn, and things are looking more clear. The edge in pressure could make all the difference when the Sun Devils mix run with well-timed blitzes or stunts.

ASU can win this outright, so back the Devils this weekend.