Barnwell: Sorting out the winners, losers and dominoes from NFL free agency's wild opening day

Day 1 of NFL free agency can be a dangerous place to operate. It's a great day for players, given that organizations have spent months talking themselves into free agents and building plans for how they'll spend cap space. It's a great day for fans, who have been spending the offseason hoping that their favorite teams fill positions of need.

But teams don't have quite the same luck; although Milton Williams and Sam Darnold were big hits in free agency last year, the likes of Dan Moore Jr., Aaron Banks and Jonathan Allen didn't deliver after being signed in the early days.

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Today, let's run through winners and losers from the first day of 2026 free agency, from both the player and team perspectives. I'll do my best to try to identify deals that didn't make sense or players who ended up in much better situations as a result of what happened on Monday. I'll move all around the league, starting in Atlanta.

Jump to:
Tagovailoa | Phillips | Stroud | Walker
Shula | Hampton | Linderbaum
Browns/Titans | Teams adding WR2s
Veterans who would have been cut

Winner: Tua Tagovailoa

Most "winners" don't start the first day of free agency by being released from the only pro team they've ever known, so I understand why there would be some hesitation in naming Tagovailoa as a winner here. Obviously, he's operating under very unique circumstances. The Dolphins are paying their former franchise quarterback $54 million in 2026, which is one heck of a safety net as Tagovailoa hit free agency for the first time as a pro.

Leaving all that aside, though, Tagovailoa was facing an uncertain future. There were only a handful of teams with real paths toward a starting job. The Dolphins, one of those teams, were about to sign Malik Willis. Tagovailoa wasn't going to ever be a great fit for a Browns team that's turning over its entire offensive line this offseason. If we assume the Raiders are about to draft Fernando Mendoza, that leaves the Cardinals, Falcons, Jets and Steelers as potential landing spots.

Of those four, the Falcons felt like the best opportunity. The Jets and Steelers play in cold-weather cities, where Tagovailoa has struggled down the stretch in recent years. The Cardinals would have Tagovailoa in a training camp battle with Jacoby Brissett.

In Atlanta, Tagovailoa will get to play in a dome. He'll have the inside track to the starting job because of Michael Penix Jr.'s torn ACL. The Falcons had an excellent Bijan Robinson-led running game in 2025, and they were already built to accommodate a left-handed quarterback. New coach Kevin Stefanski also leaned heavily into a left-sided boot action game despite fielding right-handed quarterbacks during his time in Cleveland, which should be an easy fit for Tagovailoa.

We'll see how Stefanski's system fits what Tagovailoa wants to do as a passer. At its best, Stefanski's offense in Cleveland was an under-center, play-action-heavy attack, with the quarterback turning his back to the defense before hitting shots for chunk plays. Tagovailoa was in an entirely different offense with the Dolphins, with about 89% of his dropbacks over the past four years coming out of the pistol or shotgun. He was asked to make quick, accurate passes and create YAC opportunities for his receivers, and at his best, he was able to put plenty of points up on the scoreboard.

Will the Falcons' offense meet somewhere in the middle? We'll have to see, but Tagovailoa's clearest path to playing with solid help around him was in Atlanta. That's a victory on a day that otherwise felt ominous for the 28-year-old quarterback.

Winner: Jaelan Phillips

Wow. I've always been a fan of Phillips' game when he has been healthy enough to step on the field. I thought he was on the verge of a breakout after his second season in the league, when the 2021 first-round pick managed seven sacks and 25 knockdowns for the Dolphins. Sadly, Phillips' career was derailed for the second time by injuries: He managed 6.5 sacks and 11 knockdowns across eight games in 2023, only to suffer a season-ending Achilles injury. Phillips rushed back in 2024 but tore his ACL four games into the season.

He was able to make it back for a full campaign in 2025, and although his five sacks don't hint at spectacular performance, advanced metrics and a closer look on tape suggest Phillips was excellent. He generated quick pressures on 5.3% of his pass-rush snaps, the 12th-highest rate among rushers with 300 attempts or more last season. He was seventh in total pressure rate, routinely able to bend around tackles and beat guards through gaps for pressures.

The problem was Phillips wasn't able to finish; he turned 7.9% of his pressures into sacks, one of the worst rates in the league. That final step from pressure to sack can be fluky and fluctuate from year to year. And between 2022 and 2024, Phillips' pressure-to-sack percentage was 12.9%, which was much closer to the league average. With his typical sack ratio, Phillips would have produced eight sacks, which would have hinted closer to his actual level of production on a snap-by-snap basis. That rate should improve toward 13% in 2026.

That's good news for the Panthers, who are paying Phillips based on his pressure rate as opposed to that sack total. I wondered whether teams would be nervous about paying a player with Phillips' injury history in free agency, but with a lack of other options available and Phillips coming off his best season as a pro, the Panthers didn't blink. They signed Phillips to what is reportedly a four-year, $120 million contract, although I suspect those numbers will come down once we get the full terms in the days to come.

I really like Phillips, but it's just incredibly difficult to make a case that he's truly a $30 million-per-year player. He has never made the Pro Bowl or managed even nine sacks in a season. He missed 22 games over his first five seasons with multiple serious injuries and retired during his time at UCLA after battling concussions, an issue he unfortunately dealt with again last season with the Eagles. I think Phillips has upside if he can stay healthy, but anything less than top-tier production would make this deal a mess for the Panthers.

It certainly feels like the Panthers are reacting to what happened last year, when they were close to signing a star defensive tackle in Milton Williams, only for him to sign with the Patriots. Williams eventually landed a four-year, $104 million deal in New England and played at a Pro Bowl level when healthy. The Panthers settled for Tershawn Wharton, paying more than $15 million per year for a guy who had been playing on a one-year, $2.7 million deal with the Chiefs the prior season. Wharton had two sacks and three knockdowns in nine games. The Phillips deal seems like the sort of "Godfather" offer that the Panthers might have wished they had made to win the Williams bidding a year ago.

Wharton and Derrick Brown are entrenched in the middle for the Panthers, which makes Phillips' fit even more tenuous. The Dolphins had a lot of success lining Phillips up against interior linemen on passing downs, where he was able to terrorize guards with his length and speed. Defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero can still do that here and there, but Carolina is already paying a premium for two defensive tackles, at least in 2026.

There's an argument that it's better to overpay to get your guy and get the best player available as opposed to settling for a more economical signing in the middle tier. And when you consider his age, taking a shot on landing a 26-year-old Phillips in his prime might have been more appealing than going after, say, Trey Hendrickson in his early 30s. I'm glad to see Phillips get paid given how much he has had to battle through to make it to this point, and he has been a wildly underrated player. But I'm not sure any contract made me gasp louder on Day 1 of free agency.

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Why Jaelan Phillips is a great addition for the Panthers

Pat McAfee and crew break down how Jaelan Phillips fits with the Panthers' defense.

Loser: C.J. Stroud

For the third straight time, the Texans' season ended in the divisional round with an opposing defense teeing off on Stroud. For the third consecutive offseason, Texans general manager Nick Caserio entered March knowing he needed to solidify things around his young quarterback. Two years ago, he traded for Joe Mixon and Stefon Diggs. Last year, Caserio completely (and understandably) tore up most of his offensive line; four of Houston's five most-used linemen in 2025 were new to the team.

This year, it's harder to make sense of what Caserio is doing. The Texans did trade former first-round pick Tytus Howard (who bounced between guard and right tackle as needed over the past few years) and gave up on former second-round selection Juice Scruggs at guard as part of a trade for Lions running back David Montgomery. Those moves might have been inevitable; Howard has wanted to play right tackle.

The Texans sending fourth- and seventh-round picks to the Lions for Montgomery seems like another example of the Texans trading draft picks away for veterans, a tactic that hasn't fared well for them in recent years. Montgomery was very good during his run with Detroit, but that was in a great situation for any back while playing in a creative scheme behind what often was a very-good-to-great offensive line. I'd be nervous about what happened with Jamaal Williams -- another fan favorite back who excelled with the Lions and immediately became a nonfactor after leaving Detroit -- repeating itself here. It's tough to imagine that the difference between Montgomery and adding one of the many midtier backs available in free agency -- such as Kenneth Gainwell or Rico Dowdle -- was worth a fourth-round pick.

Caserio did choose to bring back the right side of his line, which is worrying. Right tackle Trent Brown signed a one-year deal worth up to $7 million to return to the team, while the Texans struck a deal with right guard Ed Ingram just before the legal negotiating period opened on Monday, with the former Viking inking a three-year, $37.5 million contract.

Last year, both players were worthy fliers. Brown spent the first half of the season on the bench before playing reasonably well down the stretch and into the wild-card round. He also has missed significant time with injuries in four of the past five campaigns, and he was unable to play in the divisional-round loss to the Patriots because of an ankle issue. His deal pays "up to" $7 million, which implies that Brown isn't guaranteed a starting role, but the Texans can't count on him to be a full-season starter in 2026.

Ingram was making $3.4 million in 2025 after being acquired from Minnesota for a sixth-round pick. He had his best season as a pro, but that's also not saying a whole heck of a lot given how much he struggled with the Vikings. Ingram showed more flashes than consistent play, and he was again a major liability in pass protection, where he struggled with staying balanced against looks he wasn't expecting and twists from teams targeting him on the interior. He allowed 14 quick pressures and 32 total pressures in 2025, with both of his pressure rates allowed coming in worse than league average, per NFL Next Gen Stats.

Ingram is a better run blocker than a pass blocker, but it was hardly as if the Texans had a stout run game in 2025. They ranked 31st in success rate on the ground last season, ahead of only the Raiders. Houston was 31st in 2024 and 29th in 2023. Is bringing Ingram back for what he has done as a run blocker really worth this much money?

At the right price, anyone can be a useful player. If the Texans had brought Ingram back for a deal in the range of $3 million to $5 million with the chance of competing for a starting job in 2026, that would have been reasonable enough. Ingram has shown no sign of being a guard worth a contract of $12.5 million per season at any point during his career, though, and this deal likely locks Ingram in as a starter in 2026 and 2027. Perhaps Caserio is placing a premium on continuity up front with the hope that familiarity would breed more consistency next season, but the Howard trade also flies in the face of that argument.

Things are about to get much more difficult in Houston. Stroud and defensive end Will Anderson Jr., the two jewels from Caserio's successful top of the 2023 draft, are both eligible for extensions and due massive raises. Anderson should become the highest-paid defensive player in football when he signs his deal. Stroud looked completely overwhelmed in the loss to the Patriots and didn't really play very well in the wild-card win over the Steelers, either, but he's not going anywhere. Caserio must find a way to build a team that gets past the divisional round with his two best players combining to make more than $100 million each year.

To do that, you have to make the most of your draft capital and have a strong handle on which players can be easily replaced through the draft and free agency if their price gets out of line. Just about everything the Texans have done up front hasn't worked over the past few years. I'm not sure running back the right side of the line in 2026 will do Stroud any more favors.

Winners: Potential cap casualty veterans

Teams that weren't enthused about their options in free agency or particularly impressed with this year's draft class were willing to send draft capital out to acquire players who were likely going to be released at the start of the new league year. Those players were probably able to get more from their new teams than they would have if they signed a new deal on the open market.

The Cowboys made the biggest move, trading a fourth-round pick to the Packers for edge rusher Rashan Gary. He looked to be on a track to stardom in 2021 and 2022 before tearing an ACL, and while he has not been quite as productive since, I wonder if setting expectations appropriately might reveal a player who can be useful on the right contract. Gary has produced 7.5 sacks in each of the past two seasons, with 15 knockdowns in 2024 and 20 in 2025. He benefited from playing across from Micah Parsons in 2025, of course, but Gary was still chipped at a slightly above-average rate, per Next Gen Stats. His pressure rates were a little below league average on the edge, but there's still a solid edge rusher here.

I would have liked this move more for the Cowboys if it had been a sixth- or seventh-round pick going to the Packers. As it stands, the Cowboys probably paid a little too much in terms of draft capital, and they will shell out a little too much to Gary, who will make $18 million in 2026 and $21 million in 2027. I suspect he would have been looking at an annual salary of something closer to $12 million to $15 million in free agency.

The Jets acquired a much-needed veteran for their secondary in Minkah Fitzpatrick, with the Dolphins landing a seventh-round pick for a player they would have likely cut this offseason. I'm not sure Miami ever really wanted him; Fitzpatrick's contract was essentially a matching salary in the trade that sent Jalen Ramsey to Pittsburgh last offseason.

Fitzpatrick was due $15.6 million in 2026, which was supposed to be the final year of his contract. Instead, he signed a three-year, $40 million deal with the Jets. We'll get the full terms in the days to come, but in years past, free agency has been unfriendly toward veteran safeties as they approach or pass the age of 30. If Fitzpatrick, who will turn 30 in November, received anything close to that $15.6 million figure for 2026 or a meaningful guarantee for 2027, that would be a very pleasant turn of events for the five-time Pro Bowler.

The Raiders even got into the mix with all of their new draft capital, swapping late-round picks with the Bills to acquire slot cornerback Taron Johnson. He was about to be released by Buffalo, but a Las Vegas team that desperately needs help at cornerback decided to acquire Johnson and pay him the $8.1 million he is owed in 2026.

While there are exceptions to this rule, with Jourdan Lewis' deal with Jacksonville as one notable recent one, free agency also is generally unfriendly toward cornerbacks as they hit 30 and typically doesn't pay slot corners as much as players who do most of their work on the outside. Johnson was excellent in the past, but he missed meaningful time in each of the previous two seasons and wasn't going to be a fit in Jim Leonhard's defense.

This isn't going to be an egregious move for the Raiders, who are sending a modest amount of draft capital and aren't paying over the top for Johnson's services, but it does speak to how desperate they are to just have competent players in the building. Las Vegas shouldn't have trouble attracting free agents to come play in the income-tax-free desert, but it seems telling that the team felt like a trade was necessary here.

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Schefter: Jets trade for Minkah Fitzpatrick

Adam Schefter reports on the Jets making a trade with the Dolphins for Minkah Fitzpatrick.

Bringing back corner Eric Stokes felt like a much better use of Las Vegas' money in the same price range. Injuries had limited Stokes' availability in Green Bay and led the Packers to move on after the 2024 campaign. Essentially swapped with Green Bay free agent addition Nate Hobbs, Stokes was the much better player in 2025, playing in 16 of 17 games while allowing a 77.7 passer rating in coverage. The three-year, $30 million deal Stokes signed to stay in Las Vegas is fair value; it's a premium for a player who has one season as a pro in which he was both healthy and productive. But if Stokes can continue to deliver the way he did in 2025, $10 million per year would be a relative bargain for a young cornerback.

Winner: Tyler Linderbaum (and centers everywhere)
Loser: Baltimore Ravens

Yesterday's price is not today's price. When the Ravens selected Linderbaum in the first round of the 2022 draft, they had to know what might transpire down the line. The league lumps all offensive linemen together in terms of evaluating fifth-year options and franchise tags, which would have created a conflict if Linderbaum emerged as a standout, given how the center market lagged behind what guards and especially tackles were paid. Some organizations wouldn't bother caring or thinking about how that problem would play out, but the Ravens are smart enough to think that far ahead and project the market accordingly.

Well, Linderbaum emerged as a standout, and the Ravens were facing a conundrum. In 2024, the highest-paid center in the league was Creed Humphrey, whose deal averaged $18 million per year. Linderbaum's fifth-year option for 2025, a no-brainer based on his play, would have cost the Ravens $23.6 million for one year, obliterating the center market and making a long-term deal even more difficult to negotiate. The Ravens declined and hoped that they could get a deal done before Linderbaum became a free agent.

After 2025, the Ravens had another shot at keeping Linderbaum by using the franchise tag. Again, it was out of line with the center market, which hadn't budged from its $18 million peak salary. Franchising Linderbaum would have cost the Ravens $25.8 million. The math just didn't add up. If he signed the tender, the Ravens would have been forced to account for all of Linderbaum's salary on their 2026 cap, which would have been difficult even before trading for Maxx Crosby over the weekend. Teams negotiating a multiyear deal with Linderbaum could structure a contract with a smaller Year 1 cap figure by working money through the signing bonus.

Well, Linderbaum hit free agency, and guess what happened? The top of the market changed. Linderbaum landed a three-year, $81 million deal from the Raiders, blowing past Humphrey's record deal. Linderbaum's contract averages $27 million per season, a 50% jump from the prior record for a center and the largest contract for an interior lineman in league history. And because it's a three-year pact, he will hit free agency again when he's about to turn 29.

It's one of the most player-friendly deals in recent memory, and a reminder of just how effective the franchise tag has been at limiting player value and salary growth. One of the other remarkably player-friendly contracts that comes to mind is the initial extension signed by Dak Prescott, who also had a significant amount of leverage because he was one year from true unrestricted free agency. A Cowboys team that had previously been hesitant to sign Prescott cratered to his every demand, giving him the largest signing bonus in NFL history and a full no-trade/no-tag clause. It gave Prescott enough leverage to become the highest-paid player in NFL history when he inked his next deal in September 2024.

It's possible that the Ravens never had a shot at getting a Linderbaum deal done. Maybe they don't value interior linemen at that level, which is reasonable enough given that they've let plenty of them leave in free agency over the years (including Ryan Jensen and John Simpson, the latter of whom rejoined Baltimore on Monday). Maybe they knew where the market was heading and weren't willing to go there. Given what the Raiders (and presumably other teams) were willing to pay to sign Linderbaum, though, it's clear that the market was there for a center in the $25 million range. Losing Linderbaum for a compensatory pick in 2027 hurts.

It will also be harder for the Ravens to replace Linderbaum without those first-round picks in 2026 and 2027, which went to the Raiders to acquire Crosby. I'll mostly refer you to my colleague Ben Solak's thoughts on the Crosby deal and why it fit what the Ravens needed on defense on the field, but it's stunning to see a team that cherishes first-round picks move so much draft capital for a player who turns 29 before the 2026 season begins.

That move might have forced the Ravens out of the Linderbaum discussion, given how much Baltimore is committing to a handful of stars. It also limits the Ravens' ability to build a Super Bowl contender around those standouts because they've now lost two first-round picks (which makes Crosby an even riskier addition). Factor in the implied value of two first-rounders, and Crosby's making $57.5 million per year after the trade, which means he has to be an MVP candidate on an annual basis to make that deal work for the Ravens.

The Crosby trade isn't necessarily a bad one, but it puts an organization that's generally very patient and rewarded for doing so into the sort of risk profile the Ravens usually try to avoid. Comparisons to the Rams aren't accurate; the Rams have traded this sort of draft capital only for players who are entering their peak or a quarterback. When they sent two Day 2 picks to the Broncos for Von Miller, the Rams also got Denver to pay down the remainder of Miller's contract as part of the move.

Lamar Jackson is 29. There's a difference between wanting to win now and leveraging assets to make winning now a necessity. The Ravens are firmly in the latter category, and though they gained Crosby, that move also cost them one of their best young players in Linderbaum.

The shocking rise at the top of the center market changes a lot of things. It's great news for teams such as the Chargers, who just inked a solid starter in Tyler Biadasz to a three-year deal for $30 million, and the Bills, who re-signed Connor McGovern for $13 million per year before free agency. It's bad news for teams such as the Commanders, who just cut Biadasz in the middle of what looked like a reasonable deal, and the Cowboys, who have a very good center coming due for a new deal soon in Cooper Beebe. The Chiefs will be thrilled that they have Humphrey secured until 2029. The Bucs and Steelers will have to be prepared to budget more for young standouts Graham Barton and Zach Frazier, respectively, when they become eligible for new contracts in 2027.

And in the big picture, more money at center means less money somewhere else. Though there has been plenty of ink spilled over the NFL's unwillingness to spend significant money at running back over the past few years, what has been lost in that conversation is where that cash has gone instead. Much of it has gone to guards, where the market has risen dramatically over the past decade. Teams are still spending on their run game, but they prefer to spend that money on the guys blocking for the ball carrier instead of the guy with the ball in his hands.

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Orlovsky: Linderbaum signing best thing Raiders could do for Mendoza

Dan Orlovsky and Peter Schrager weigh in on why the Raiders signing C Tyler Linderbaum is good for Fernando Mendoza.

With the roof exploding for centers, does that squeeze running backs even further? Linderbaum is making $9 million more than any running back and about twice as much per year as guys like Kenneth Walker III and Travis Etienne Jr. signed for in free agency Monday. You can decide whether that's a good idea, but with center taking a larger market share, that money will come out of some other position's bucket in the years to come.

For the Raiders, Linderbaum fits as an investment on multiple levels. He's one of the more athletic centers in the league, and that will be needed as new coach Klint Kubiak installs what is likely to be a play-action, zone-heavy scheme. As I covered in my Super Bowl preview, Kubiak's Seahawks offense installed more gap runs and a wider range of concepts than the classic stretch offense his father, Gary, learned and then operated along with the Shanahan family years ago. But having athletic interior linemen is essential if an offense wants to make a zone run game work.

Linderbaum can be physically overpowered by bigger defensive tackles at times, but he's one of the league's better one-on-one pass-blocking centers. He will be an essential set of eyes for presumptive first pick Fernando Mendoza, hopefully helping to set protections and sort out the many pressures the Raiders will see from their AFC West opponents. Is this an overpay? Probably, but if the Raiders were going to overpay for anybody, Linderbaum was the right guy to go over the top and add.

Winner: Chris Shula

The Rams spent all of 2025 making a very big bet on defense. While they had a fearsome young, talented defensive line, they were hoping that they could use post-snap movement and disguised coverages to mask an underwhelming group of linebackers and cornerbacks.

And while defensive coordinator Shula managed to coax unexpectedly solid performances out of Nate Landman at linebacker and Emmanuel Forbes Jr. at cornerback, when the Rams lost, it was usually because they didn't have the standouts to hold off big, talented receivers in opposing passing games. The Eagles and Panthers beat the Rams in the regular season with big passing plays to A.J. Brown and Jalen Coker. Jaxon Smith-Njigba went for 153 yards and a touchdown in the NFC Championship Game that ended Los Angeles' season.

Well, the Rams won't have that same problem in 2026. General manager Les Snead brought back underrated safety Kam Curl on a three-year, $36 million deal. He traded a first-round pick to the Chiefs to add star cornerback Trent McDuffie, then signed the former All-Pro to a four-year, $124 million extension, resetting the cornerback market.

To finish the job, Snead signed one of McDuffie's former teammates from Kansas City by adding Jaylen Watson on Monday afternoon on a three-year, $51 million deal. Watson was already one of the league's more underrated cornerbacks, allowing just one touchdown over the past two seasons while playing in a scheme that asked the 2022 seventh-round pick to hold up in man coverage and cover plenty of space in fire zones behind coordinator Steve Spagnuolo's exotic blitzes. In 2025, Watson missed just 1.5% of his tackle attempts while allowing a sub-80.0 passer rating for the second consecutive season.

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Schefter: CB Jaylen Watson goes from Chiefs to Rams

Adam Schefter reports that the Rams continue to load up on cornerbacks with the addition of Jaylen Watson from the Chiefs.

Shula's defense played dime on 32.4% of snaps last season, the league's highest rate. The Rams were in base (three linebackers) at the ninth-lowest rate in the NFL. To play with five or six defensive backs on the field and thrive doing so against the best offenses in football, a team needs versatile, physical defensive backs who can hold up in coverage, tackle consistently and make an impact against the run. The Seahawks were able to do that with Nick Emmanwori as they went all the way to the Super Bowl.

Now, after the Rams added Watson and McDuffie, I wouldn't be shocked if they leaned even further into nickel and dime groupings in 2026. They'll likely lose Cobie Durant, but between Curl, Forbes, Kamren Kinchens and Quentin Lake, there's suddenly a deep, robust secondary here. The Rams were already the ninth-best defense by EPA per play last season, and now they've plugged the biggest hole on their team with two standouts. Watch out.

Losers: Cleveland Browns, Tennessee Titans

Perhaps it's unfair to lump two of the worst teams in the AFC together. They both got better Monday, in part because it would have been hard for them to get much worse. I just have a lot of questions about their Day 1 additions, which were more curious than inspiring.

The Browns need offensive linemen, given that four of their starters and sometimes-left-tackle Cam Robinson are free agents. Cleveland made one addition by trading for Tytus Howard, who should step in at right tackle, his preferred position. I'm not sure he has really ever been anything more than an average tackle, and the Browns gave him a two-year, $45 million extension as part of the trade, but it was time to move on from Jack Conklin, who has battled knee injuries throughout his time in Cleveland and wasn't the same player by the end of his tenure.

Cleveland added a second lineman Monday in former Chargers guard Zion Johnson, who signed a three-year deal worth $49.5 million. Even if that number comes down after we get a look at the full details, it's just too much money for a player who hasn't been anywhere close to a league-average guard. Johnson started for four years in Los Angeles by virtue of being a 2022 first-round pick.

The Chargers declined his fifth-year option, and while Johnson's play perked up a bit in his final season with Los Angeles, there are still major concerns about his ability as a pass blocker. He just couldn't do anything with some of the league's better defensive linemen, as players such as DeForest Buckner and Milton Williams were able to easily get Johnson off a solid base and go through him to the quarterback.

Johnson allowed seven sacks and 19 quick pressures, with the latter figure leading all guards in 2025. His 3.0% quick pressure rate was nearly 50% higher than the league average for guards. The positives in his run blocking a season ago should have led teams to take a shot on him as a potential rotational guy in 2026. Instead, he'll be getting $16.5 million per season over the next couple of years. The Browns would have been better off waiting to see where the guard market went if they were paying that much to come to terms with Johnson on Monday.

The Titans, meanwhile, came into this offseason with more money to spend than any other team. They had $85 million in cap room, a figure that could have risen even higher if they had moved on from disappointing veterans Calvin Ridley and L'Jarius Sneed. I wouldn't be shocked if one or both still gets released or traded in the days to come, but the goal for Tennessee was to add talent on both sides of the football around second-year quarterback Cam Ward and star defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons.

I don't mind their moves on the defense. I'll start with the positive. When the Titans traded T'Vondre Sweat to the Jets, a reunion with coach Robert Saleh and former Jets defensive tackle John Franklin-Myers seemed inevitable. Franklin-Myers was the best defensive tackle in a very thin market, and the Titans were able to land him and build a genuine strength in the middle of their line, albeit at a very high price. Franklin-Myers will go from making $7.5 million per year with the Broncos to $21 million per year with the Titans, the sort of massive salary bump we don't typically see for players on their fourth NFL contract. Given the lack of alternatives, I can understand why the Titans prioritized Franklin-Myers.

Tennessee also needed help at cornerback, where moves for Sneed and a bevy of draft picks haven't worked out. They signed two solid, young players in Cor'Dale Flott and Alontae Taylor, both of whom have the ability to play above-average football as they enter the peak of their careers. Saleh has done excellent work coaching up cornerbacks in the past, so there might be meaningful upside here beyond what the Titans saw from these players in New York and New Orleans, respectively.

Adding one or two players the coaching staff already knew made sense. Adding five seems a little much. In addition to Flott and Franklin-Myers, the Titans made more curious moves on offense by riding the Giants for tight end Daniel Bellinger (three years, $24 million) and wide receiver Wan'Dale Robinson (four years, $78 million). Offensive coordinator Brian Daboll added another player from his past in Bills backup Mitchell Trubisky, who comes in on a two-year pact behind Ward.

These offensive additions don't move the needle in the right way. Bellinger has failed to top 300 receiving yards in a season as a pro, he isn't a threat in the red zone, and he isn't the same caliber of blocker in the run game as players like Charlie Kolar or Charlie Woerner. The Giants had a 39.8% success rate on designed runs with Bellinger on the field over the past four years and a 40.8% mark when he was on the sideline. That's a very broad stat to use to draw conclusions about one player, but the Giants had one of the league's worst running games with or without Bellinger on the field, which wasn't the case for blocking tight ends Kolar or Woerner when they signed surprisingly large deals in free agency.

Was Bellinger's presence as a blocker really essential at this size of contract? Could the Titans have found a more reasonable alternative by being patient?

Robinson had a career year in 2025, topping 10 yards per catch for the first time, but he has essentially been a gadget player over his four seasons. His average catch has come with just 6.4 air yards, which ranks 80th out of 85 wide receivers over the past four seasons. There's a role for him in the right offense on the right deal, but one of the few things the Titans already had in their receiving room was a gadget receiver in Chimere Dike. They are making a $19.5 million-per-year bet that Robinson is a more complete wide receiver than he has let on for the vast majority of his pro career. It just seems like they would have been better off using that money on more impactful or difficult-to-find player archetypes.

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Schefter: Titans pay up for Wan'Dale Robinson

Pat McAfee and Adam Schefter react to the Titans signing Wan'Dale Robinson.

Will the Titans be better in 2026? Yes. But they came into Monday needing playmakers for Ward, edge rushing help and significant investment in the secondary. Between Flott and Taylor, they solved the latter issue, but I'm not sure they meaningfully addressed either of the first two problems.

Losers: Teams that spent big on secondary WR options

The top of the wide receiver market has climbed from $30 million in 2022 to $40.25 million with Ja'Marr Chase's extension last March, but the market for second and third options in NFL offenses has been much murkier. That's not in reference to players such as Tee Higgins, because the second wideout in Cincinnati would be a No. 1 option for a handful of other teams. Davante Adams might be considered another exception given his status as a future Hall of Famer. Instead, this is in reference to players who would be second or third options throughout the vast majority of the NFL's rosters.

Most teams prefer to develop and re-sign their secondary wide receivers, because when those players have hit free agency over the past few years, the deals haven't really worked out. Over the past three offseasons, there have been 15 second or third wideouts who landed contracts worth at least $7 million per season. The hit rate on those deals has been disastrous. The only real hits have been with Jakobi Meyers (who signed with the Raiders) and Adam Thielen (who joined the Panthers). You could make a case for Cooper Kupp given that he won a title with the Seahawks, but even with his impact blocking, I'm not sure he was propelling the Seahawks forward with 593 receiving yards on a deal that averages $15 million in salary.

Charitably, that's a 20% success rate. There have been way more disasters in this contract range, as players such as Allen Lazard, Mike Williams, Tutu Atwell and Dyami Brown all played their way out of favor and into healthy scratch territory by the end of Year 1. Well-known veterans like Hollywood Brown, Curtis Samuel and Joshua Palmer weren't able to parlay moving to teams with Hall of Fame quarterbacks into more production. These guys haven't been appreciably better than players on lesser deals or rookie contracts, but they've cost much more to roster.

We've already seen a handful of those deals handed out on the first day of free agency, and I'd be nervous about how they'll play out for the teams involved. I mentioned Robinson a moment ago. The Falcons inked Jahan Dotson, who wasn't able to command consistent targets as the third wideout in Philadelphia, to a two-year pact for $15 million. Jalen Nailor, who was the third wideout for the Vikings, joined the Raiders for three years and $35 million. The Seahawks also split the difference and brought back a veteran who spent an abbreviated season with them by re-signing Rashid Shaheed, who inked a three-year, $51 million deal to stay in Seattle.

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Schefter breaks news of Rashid Shaheed's return to Seahawks

Adam Schefter reports on Rashid Shaheed signing a three-year, $51 million deal to remain in Seattle.

These four players made an average of about $2.7 million last season, about half of which belonged to Shaheed, who makes a big impact as a return man to help supplement his value. Even when he was with the Seahawks in 2025, though, Shaheed wasn't able to make many inroads in the passing game. That was without Tory Horton in the lineup; the 2025 fifth-rounder flashed with five touchdowns on 13 receptions before getting hurt last season. Is Shaheed really going to see enough of a target share to justify this deal? Would the Seahawks have been better off throwing that money at an offensive lineman or one of their defensive free agents who left Monday?

The Raiders needed wideouts, and Nailor showed some upside as a downfield threat. There's a contract for which that makes sense. Is it anywhere close to $12 million per season? You never want to say never, because Nailor could emerge without Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison gobbling up targets ahead of him, but that's a lot of projection happening on a pretty significant contract.

No team is going to bat 1.000 in free agency, and even the smartest and best-intentioned teams can make mistakes or have a good move go bad. One of the core things general managers need to think about as they approach free agency, though, is whether they're paying a premium for something they can acquire at a much lower rate, either by waiting in free agency for contract demands to go down or by using draft picks to land talent that might approximate that production and offer even more upside.

Look at the Jaguars, who signed Brown to a one-year, $10 million deal last offseason. By adding Brown and Travis Hunter, the Jags blocked any path to a starting role for Parker Washington, who had been impressive down the stretch in 2024 on a hopeless team. By the end of the season, Hunter was hurt, Brown had been deactivated and Washington was the team's top wideout alongside Meyers, Jacksonville's midseason acquisition. The Jags still made the playoffs, but if they had taken that $10 million they paid Brown and used it for another pass rusher or defensive back, could that have been the difference in an incredibly tight game with the Bills?

Sometimes, it's better to let the younger guys on lesser deals play in those borderline roles and use the savings to pay a premium to more clearly defined starters.

Winner: Omarion Hampton

Things were already looking up for the second-year back when the Chargers hired Mike McDaniel -- one of the league's most innovative and impactful run-game designers -- as their new offensive coordinator. They improved even more over the weekend, when general manager Joe Hortiz replaced retired center Bradley Bozeman with the aforementioned Biadasz, who joined on a three-year pact. Guard Cole Strange, who played in Miami last season, also joined as guard depth. And by Monday evening, things had gotten even better for Hampton, who landed two new valuable teammates beyond the offensive line to help clear out holes.

One is familiar to McDaniel. As the Dolphins shed anyone who earns money, they moved on from fullback Alec Ingold last week. Ingold didn't have to wait long to find a new opportunity, as the Chargers added the 2023 Pro Bowler on a two-year deal worth up to $7.5 million. The other is less familiar, but Charlie Kolar became renowned for his blocking in Baltimore. The Chargers added their new inline tight end on a three-year deal for $24.3 million.

We're going to see a shift in how the Chargers play offense in 2026. Last season, Jim Harbaugh's team lined up with three or more wideouts on the field nearly 67% of the time, the seventh-highest rate in the league. Oronde Gadsden was also a move tight end who played more like a big wide receiver than a traditional tight end, making those groupings even more wideout heavy.

McDaniel's Dolphins team didn't have Tyreek Hill for most of the season, but it was in three-plus-wideout sets just 40.7% of the time, which was the third-lowest rate in the NFL. (The Dolphins were 29th in three-wideout usage even with a healthy Hill between 2022 and 2024.) The additions of Ingold and Kolar signal where this offense is going. We'll see more two-back sets with Ingold blocking for Hampton and more two-tight-end sets, with Kolar inline and Gadsden freed to move around the formation and create matchup problems.

Ladd McConkey is the best fit among Los Angeles' wide receivers to run all of the crossers and in-breaking routes that McDaniel's offense majored in with the Dolphins, so he should still be fine. But I wouldn't count on a meaningful reunion with Keenan Allen, who caught 81 passes after re-signing with the Chargers on a one-year deal last offseason. And with Tre' Harris likely to earn more playing time in his second year, I'm wondering whether the Chargers will look to trade Quentin Johnston, whose fifth-year option has to be decided upon this spring.

TBD: Kenneth Walker III

I'm torn on Walker's fit with the Chiefs. Of all the landing spots for the reigning Super Bowl MVP, obviously, the Chiefs offer a very high ceiling. Playing with Patrick Mahomes once the future Hall of Fame quarterback recovers from his torn ACL is a dream for any player. The Chiefs also have a promising offensive line, with superstars at center (Creed Humphrey) and right guard (Trey Smith) and a left tackle who looked like a difference-maker when he was on the field as a rookie (Josh Simmons). There's a lot to like from Walker's perspective.

The Chiefs are landing an imperfect player but one who fits most of what they need at running back. I'm not sure there's ever going to be a back in this offense who can fill the sort of three-down receiving role that Kareem Hunt had in his first run with Mahomes, but the Chiefs needed to replace Isiah Pacheco and the modern version of Hunt with someone who can create explosive plays in the run game. The Chiefs have turned just 2.9% of their rush attempts by backs into gains of 12 or more yards over the past two seasons, comfortably the worst mark for any offense. The league average is 7.2%.

Hunt was very effective in short yardage, but the Chiefs were desperate for someone who could create chunk plays on the ground over the past couple of years. Walker doesn't have a good success rate and won't do much as a receiver, but he can absolutely create explosive plays on the ground. His 12.1% explosive run rate over the past four years ranks fifth among backs with 600 carries or more over that span, placing him ahead of players such as Christian McCaffrey, Breece Hall and Saquon Barkley.

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Orlovsky: Kenneth Walker III can '100%' change everything for Chiefs

Dan Orlovsky, Peter Schrager and Pat McAfee react to the news that Kenneth Wallker III is signing with the Chiefs.

Walker faced a roughly league-average rate of light boxes in Seattle, but Chiefs backs have faced light boxes on 51% of their carries over the past four years, a much higher rate than the league average of 39% over that same span, per Next Gen Stats. If the lighter boxes make it easier for Walker to produce successful carries, and he takes advantage of the open space to continue creating explosive plays, he could be incredibly efficient as a runner in his new stomping grounds.

My hesitation comes from looking at how the Chiefs run their offense. Under coach Andy Reid and with Mahomes at the helm, the Chiefs have primarily been a gun-run, zone-heavy offense, with them sprinkling in liberal doses of run-pass options to create conflict for second-level defenders. That offense was great when it worked, but even when the Chiefs had a dominant interior line between Humphrey, Smith and Joe Thuney, it seemed like Kansas City was leaving something on the table by not leaning heavier into that offensive identity, especially when the unit was struggling at times over the past few years.

The league as a whole has shifted away from that rushing attack and more toward under-center runs and gap schemes. The Chiefs have the offensive line personnel to run those concepts, but Reid has been hesitant to really commit to a change, in part because Mahomes has such incredible vision from the shotgun. The Chiefs would also need to build a play-action attack off that under-center run game to make it truly effective, and Mahomes has averaged just 45 under-center play-action shots per season over the past four years.

Walker would benefit from the Chiefs playing under center. He has averaged 4.5 yards per carry and posted a 40% success rate on runs from under center as a pro. That dropped to 4.1 yards per carry with a 37% success rate -- the lowest among backs with 400 carries or more over the past four years -- when the Seahawks ran him out of the gun or pistol.

With Eric Bieniemy rejoining the organization as offensive coordinator this offseason after the Chiefs' wildly frustrating 2025, this might be the occasion for Reid to take stock of where the offense has fallen short in recent years and make changes accordingly. The move to sign Walker doesn't indicate that the Chiefs will change their offense to account for where the league has gone, and the offense is always going to revolve around what's best for Mahomes, who might not want to move all that much as he returns from his knee injury. But I think Walker's best chance of succeeding in Kansas City would come with a shift in how the Chiefs approach their run game.

The Chiefs also benefit from not incurring the opportunity cost of using the ninth overall pick on a running back. While Jeremiyah Love is an incredibly exciting prospect and should turn into a great pro, there are just way more opportunities to find useful backs in free agency or in the later rounds of the draft. It's harder to find elite edge rushers, cornerbacks and offensive linemen there, which is why teams should be using the premium picks on those hard-to-find positions. Signing Walker is a much better way to address running back than using a top-10 pick.