Kevin PeltonMay 14, 2025, 07:45 AM ET
- Co-author, Pro Basketball Prospectus series
- Formerly a consultant with the Indiana Pacers
- Developed WARP rating and SCHOENE system
Year 1 was record-setting for the WNBA's 2024 rookie class. What might its second season have in store?
In part due to the extended regular season (the league went to a 40-game schedule in 2023), rookie All-Stars Caitlin Clark and Angel Reese combined to set rookie records for points (Clark), rebounds (Reese) and assists (Clark). Both Clark's assist average and Reese's rebound average also were the highest ever for first-year WNBA players -- and in Reese's case, a WNBA record regardless of experience.
Beyond Clark and Reese, the 2024 draft produced four other players who averaged at least seven points per game last season: the Los Angeles Sparks duo of Cameron Brink and Rickea Jackson, Reese's Chicago Sky teammate Kamilla Cardoso, and Aaliyah Edwards of the Washington Mystics.
With a year of WNBA experience and a full offseason behind them, plus additional veteran help for several of last year's top rookies, let's look at how we can expect these players to grow and improve on the weaker spots in their game during the 2025 campaign, which starts Friday.
More weapons for Clark
In the wake of Clark being named Rookie of the Year, earning All-WNBA first-team honors and leading the Indiana Fever to the playoffs for the first time since 2016, her team became a favored destination in free agency. Indiana loaded up with two of the top players to change teams in six-time All-Star DeWanna Bonner and 2019 Defensive Player of the Year Natasha Howard.
With those additions, Clark enters the season as the favorite for MVP at ESPN BET, ahead of three-time MVP A'ja Wilson and 2024 MVP runner-up Napheesa Collier. If Clark were to win MVP, she would be the least experienced winner since Candace Parker in her rookie season in 2008.
It took Wilson and Breanna Stewart, who have combined to win five of the past seven MVPs, until Year 3 in the league to reach that level. And neither had to take down a winner in her prime as established as Wilson is. The year before Stewart won for the first time in 2018, Sylvia Fowles won her only MVP at age 31. Elena Delle Donne, the MVP the year before Wilson won for the first time in 2020, was unable to participate during that "wubble" season -- with its neutral-site setting -- due to medical concerns.
Realistically, I'd consider both Wilson and Collier more likely to win MVP, but Clark's status as favorite is indicative of the expectations for her second WNBA season. To a degree, Clark's monster performance over the last 20 games of her rookie year (22.3 points, 10.0 assists, 5.7 rebounds per game) might be difficult to maintain -- for good reasons.
Because the Fever added two scoring threats in Bonner (15.0 PPG last season) and Howard (17.6 PPG) to their starting five, plus sixth woman Sophie Cunningham (8.4 PPG in 2024 but double figures the previous two seasons), there will be fewer plays to go around. Based on my projected rotation for Indiana, players' usage rates will need to drop an average of 3% from what we'd otherwise expect.
Although that change might not be distributed equally, the Fever surely want to take some of the load off Clark, who ranked second in the WNBA in total minutes as a rookie (1,416), behind only Arike Ogunbowale. On the flip side, that could produce better efficiency for Clark. She shot 39% on catch-and-shoot 3s last season, per GeniusIQ tracking, as compared to 32.5% on pull-up attempts. Clark took more than twice as many pull-up 3s (231, easily the most in the league) as catch-and-shoot ones (114). Evening out that ratio could help Clark improve in an area that already was a strength.
Clark's biggest leap could ultimately be in the playoffs. As the No. 6 seed, Indiana was swept by the third-seeded Connecticut Sun without getting a home game last season. With Bonner and Howard, the Fever are now favorites to earn home-court advantage in the opening round and win a playoff series for the first time since reaching the 2015 WNBA Finals. Clark has always shined on the biggest stages and now has a team capable of getting her there as a pro.
Raised expectations for Reese
Over the past year, Reese has thrived off low expectations for her individually and her teams. After slipping to the No. 7 pick of the WNBA draft, Reese joined a Sky team that was expected to be among the league's worst after trading All-Star Kahleah Copper. Propelled by Reese's All-Star debut, Chicago instead stayed in the hunt for a playoff spot until the final week of the season.
That paled in comparison to the surprise Reese's Rose BC team pulled off in Unrivaled this spring. Ranked last in my preseason projections -- which were based on WNBA play and not the 3-on-3 format used by Unrivaled -- Rose went 8-6 to finish second in the standings and won the inaugural Unrivaled championship. Although Reese was unable to compete in the playoffs due to a hand injury, she won Defensive Player of the Year.
Now, Reese can hope to get the Sky back to the playoffs after a two-year absence. Having added veteran guards Ariel Atkins and Courtney Vandersloot this offseason, Chicago has been given 50-50 odds of finishing in the top eight at ESPN BET. With Atkins and Vandersloot, plus fellow newcomers Rebecca Allen and Kia Nurse, the Sky will put more modern floor spacing around Reese and Cardoso in the frontcourt after attempting just 14.9 3-pointers per game last season, more than three fewer than any other WNBA team.
In particular, Vandersloot's playmaking ability should benefit Reese by setting her up for more easy finishes. Reese made 44% of her potential assist opportunities last season, per GeniusIQ. On self-created shots without an assist opportunity, Reese shot just 35%, producing the lowest effective field goal percentage for any player with at least 100 attempts, according to GeniusIQ.
Improved spacing also will help give Cardoso more room to operate in the post. Per GeniusIQ, Cardoso's 11.2 post-ups per 100 possessions as a rookie ranked third most among WNBA regulars, behind Brittney Griner and Tina Charles. Cardoso was productive in two preseason games against the Minnesota Lynx, combining for 23 points, 16 rebounds and five blocks in 42 minutes of action.
About the only downside for Reese is that an improved Sky offense could mean fewer rebound opportunities after she joined Yolanda Griffith as just the second player in league history to average at least five offensive rebounds per game last season. That's a tradeoff Reese will surely take.
Plum joins Jackson, Brink
Like Chicago and Indiana, Los Angeles was aggressive in free agency, trading the No. 2 draft pick as part of a three-team deal that landed Kelsey Plum with the Sparks via sign-and-trade. That could mean a smaller role on offense for Jackson, who finished third among rookies at 13.4 PPG.
Nonetheless, Jackson is the preseason favorite for Most Improved Player at ESPN BET, with two other 2024 draft picks (Edwards and Cardoso) in the top five. That would mark a change from recent precedent. Jonquel Jones in 2017 was the last second-year player to be named Most Improved Player, though Jones was the third sophomore to win in a four-year span back then.
Los Angeles adds Plum to a team that returns six of its seven leading scorers, with only Lexie Brown (traded to the Seattle Storm) missing. The Sparks also could get full seasons from Odyssey Sims, a late-season pickup, and Azura Stevens, who missed half of 2024 due to left arm surgery. Los Angeles also expects to get Brink back around the one-year anniversary of the left ACL tear she suffered June 18.
The No. 2 pick last year, Brink was off to a slow start offensively, shooting 40% from the field. But her size made the 6-foot-4 Brink one of the league's top rim protectors from day one. The 9% of opponent 2-point attempts Brink blocked were far and away most in the league, with nobody else cracking even 7%. Having her back on the court should help the Sparks improve a defense that ranked 10th on a per-possession basis.
With Plum offering another ballhandling option, Jackson's development as a shooter could take center stage in Year 2. Jackson made 35% of her 3s as a rookie, up from 31% career in college and 34% in her senior year at Tennessee. If Jackson can maintain or improve on that shooting, Los Angeles' offense could be difficult to stop.
Edwards part of youth movement
By contrast to the other teams in the 2024 lottery, the Mystics didn't load up this offseason. Washington went the other direction, trading Atkins to Chicago and veteran Karlie Samuelson to the Lynx. Remarkably, Edwards already has the fifth-longest tenure of any Mystics player.
The offseason makeover has left Washington heavy in the frontcourt. The Mystics have two starting-caliber centers in Shakira Austin and Stefanie Dolson -- who teamed up in the starting five when Austin was healthy last season -- along with back-to-back first-round picks at power forward in Edwards and rookie Kiki Iriafen. Emily Engstler and Sika Kone, who played well late last season, are also in the mix.
Unfortunately, that depth already has been tested by injuries. Austin is day-to-day with a right leg injury, while Edwards has been sitting out since the start of May due to a lower back contusion. The Mystics announced Edwards would be reevaluated in two weeks, putting her availability for the season opener in question.
Assuming Edwards returns soon, we'll see whether she can translate the skills that led her to an unlikely run to the finals of Unrivaled's 1-on-1 tournament. Edwards took down two No. 1 seeds -- Stewart and Ogunbowale -- in the tourney as well as All-Star Allisha Gray. Edwards also shot 56% in Unrivaled games. Although her 49% shooting was second in the WNBA last season among rookies behind Cardoso, Edwards needs to shoot a high percentage to be efficient because she doesn't make 3s (0-for-7 last season) and rarely gets to the foul line.