'An incredible battle' - why top-five race is 'impossible to call'

The Premier League title race is almost over and relegation appears a done deal too, but there is still everything to play for in the battle for the top five and it is going to be an incredible fight to the finish.

There are five teams going for the three Champions League places behind Liverpool and Arsenal, with only two points between them, and this weekend showed why it is impossible to call.

Going into the latest round of games, the way I saw it there were two in-form teams, Aston Villa and Newcastle, and two sides, Nottingham Forest and Chelsea, who were having a bit of a wobble.

Over the course of Saturday and Sunday, a lot changed. Villa battered Newcastle, and deserved it too, while Chelsea were 1-0 down with less than 10 minutes to go at Fulham but somehow turned it around to win.

That victory put Chelsea back in the top five, above Forest. Nuno Espirito Santo's side have lost their past two games, but they will go back to third if they beat Tottenham on Monday.

The picture is going to keep on changing too - Manchester City play Villa on Tuesday, when I guess the other three teams watching on will be hoping for a draw - and this is what it is going to be like now every week between now and the end of the season.

Someone will have a bad result and appear to be out of it, and someone else will win and look like they are favourites, but there are plenty of twists and turns to come.

From Newcastle's point of view, after a defeat like the one they suffered against Villa on Saturday, they have the right game coming up next - against one of the bottom three, Ipswich, at home.

They just have to forget about what happened against Villa, because the bigger picture is that they have already won a trophy this season and they are still in third place with five games to go.

If someone had offered that to them last summer, they would have snapped their hands off.

It is hard enough to predict results in the Premier League anyway, but at this stage of the season it is even more difficult.

Looking at each club's remaining games now doesn't really help in deciding what might happen, because some of the teams they face may have different priorities, or nothing to play for full-stop.

Chelsea's game against Liverpool on 4 May is a good example of that. Liverpool can clinch the Premier League title next weekend, when they play Tottenham, and we don't know what their attitude will be like after that.

You can't blame Arne Slot's side if they go to Stamford Bridge after they have just become champions and they are not quite at it, but if that's the case then it definitely helps Chelsea's cause.

Further down the line, a similar situation could benefit Newcastle, who face Arsenal in their penultimate game when the Gunners might have a Champions League final to look forward to.

It's the same for anyone who plays Manchester United and Tottenham before the end of the season too, because the Europa League is their priority now.

Even with that in mind, though, I still look at Chelsea's fixtures as being among the toughest, just because they have got to travel to two of their rivals, Newcastle and Forest, as part of their run-in.

That's why it was a huge result for them to turn things around against Fulham, particularly because there seems to be some unrest among their fans and issues with some of their key players.

It's a good sign that they still got the result they needed at Craven Cottage but they only got back into the game when Tyrique George came on with about 12 minutes to go - they would not have won the game without him.

Nicolas Jackson has not scored since mid-December but their main man is Cole Palmer and, for several weeks now, he has not been firing at all.

Palmer does not look happy and he is not playing well. He has not scored in his past 16 games, and he has had a real dip in form at the wrong time for Chelsea.

They got the job done on Sunday because a young kid came off the bench to rescue them, but you have to think that to make the top five they will have to get Palmer scoring again.

As I said on MOTD2, right now my guess would be that maybe Chelsea and Forest will be the teams who miss out - but that situation could change very quickly.

There will be ups and downs for all five clubs involved but they have all got valid reasons for thinking they can and will make it.

They all have the same incentive too - getting in the Champions League, or not, is massive because of the financial rewards it brings.

For Manchester City, who have qualified every year since 2011, it is part of their model and although Chelsea have not been in it for a couple of seasons, that applies to them too.

Chelsea finished sixth last season and failing to improve on that will probably be deemed a failure, even if they win the Uefa Conference League.

In contrast, no-one saw this coming from Forest, but they have now spent so much time in the top five that they will be disappointed if they don't make it from here.

Villa and Newcastle are both different again, in that both clubs have had a taste of it now and their fans, players - everyone - they all want more.

I've been lucky enough to go to Villa Park for some Champions League games this season, including their thrilling attempt to fight back against Paris St-Germain last week, and the atmosphere was incredible, the same as it was with Newcastle in 2023-24.

If you think about where both clubs want to go, and also how they might comply with the Premier League's profit and sustainability rules while they try to get there, then Champions League football is imperative - let's wait and see what the next few weeks bring.

Alan Shearer was speaking to BBC Sport's Chris Bevan.